Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.1)
(22)
36,351
U.S. stocks moved mostly lower during trading yesterday, giving back some ground
Nifty
(0.2)
(23)
10,957
after trending higher over the past several sessions. The major averages moved to
Mid Cap
(0.6)
(95)
15,086
the downside early in the session and remained stuck in the red throughout the day.
Small Cap
(1.0)
(157)
15,657
The Dow Jones fell by 0.5% to 25,065 and the Nasdaq was down by 0.4% at 7,825.
Bankex
(0.4)
(115)
29,606
U.K. stocks recovered from early losses to edge higher yesterday, buoyed by a
weaker pound after retail sales data fell short of market expectations. Retail sales
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
unexpectedly declined in June, but the quarterly growth rate was the fastest since
2015, preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics showed. The
Dow Jones
(0.5)
(135)
25,065
benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.1% to 7,684.
Nasdaq
(0.4)
(29)
7,825
FTSE
0.1
8
7,684
On domestic front, Indian shares closed lower on Thursday as caution crept in
ahead of the voting on the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition parties
Nikkei
(0.1)
(30)
22,765
against the Modi government. The Lok Sabha will take up the debate on the Telugu
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(107)
28,011
Desam Party's no-confidence motion against the centre on Friday, with the BJP
Shanghai Com
(0.5)
(15)
2,773
expressing confidence that it would be able to defeat it. The BSE Sensex dipped by
0.1% to 36,351.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
News Analysis
Advances
804
499
ITNL runs into trouble, plans to terminate contracts for Gurgaon Metro
Declines
1,805
1,299
Unchanged
135
79
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Volumes (` Cr)
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
BSE
3,081
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
NSE
27,887
Refer Pg5 onwards
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
FII
(585)
(2,353)
-7,192
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
*MFs
(29)
3,625
72,228
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
657
867
32.1
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
619
720
16.4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
284
410
44.2
Bata India
Others
Buy
829
948
14.4
ADANIPOWER
22
8.5
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
419
589
40.5
ADANIENT
151
6.3
More Top Picks on Pg4
BANKINDIA
83
4.8
Key Upcoming Events
RADICO
360
4.6
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
DBCORP
265
4.5
ReadingExpectations
Jul 23, 2018
US
Existing home sales
5.43
5.46
Jul 23, 2018
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.50)
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Jul 24, 2018
Germany PMI Services
54.50
54.60
TATASTEELPP
89
-10.0
Jul 24, 2018
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
-
-
PCJEWELLER
71
-9.0
Jul 25, 2018
Germany PMI Manufacturing
55.90
55.60
More Events on Pg7
MINDTREE
970
-8.7
RENUKA
10
-7.9
LTI
1730
-6.7
As on July 19, 2018
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
News Analysis
ITNL runs into trouble, plans to terminate contracts for
Gurgaon Metro
Not all seems to be good with the Gurgaon Metro project, with the two
subsidiaries operating Gurgaon Rapid Metro and Gurgaon Rapid Metro South
expected to look for termination of contracts. Three other subsidiaries of IL&FS
Transportation Networks (ITNL), the parent company, have also initiated
termination of contracts for their respective infrastructure projects.
Debt worth more than Rs 28.50 billion now face a default rating, while debt riding
on the five projects anticipating a termination stands at more than Rs 43 billion.
Four of the five ITNL subsidiaries have missed the debt repayment cycle for June,
forcing rating agencies to assign a default rating.
Rapid Metro Rail Gurgaon was awarded the metro link from Delhi Metro Rail
Corp's (DMRC's) Sikandarpur Station to National Highway 8 in Gurgaon through a
concession agreement by the Haryana Urban Development Authority (HUDA) for
99 years starting 2009. Rapid Metro Rail South was awarded the Metro link from
DMRC Sikandarpur Station to Gurgaon Sector 56 for 98 years.
IL&FS Rail owns 65 per cent and ITNL 35 per cent in Rapid Metro Rail South
company, while IL&FS Rail, IL&FS Incubation Trust and ITNL hold 49.58 per cent,
47.58 per cent and 2.89 per cent, respectively, in Rapid Metro Rail Gurgaon.
According to sources, ITNL, has been looking to refinance some of its loans, but
has seen limited success. The company recently initiated termination on three other
road projects.
Economic and Political News
Lok Sabha passes fugitive economic offenders bill as Oppn attacks govt
ADB raises inflation forecast for India to 5% for current fiscal year
Maharashtra dairy farmers withdraw stir as govt hikes rate to Rs 25/litre
Liquidity crisis for gems, jewellery sector as Nirav Modi case scares banks
Corporate News
ITNL runs into trouble, plans to terminate contracts for Gurgaon Metro
JSW to invest nearly $150 million in UAE to set up 1 mt cement unit
NCLT approves JSW Steel-AION resolution plan for debt-laden Monnet Ispat
NCLT approves J K Papers' resolution plan for revival of Sirpur Paper Mills
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Bjaj Auto Ltd - July 20, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
7,263
5,442
33.5
6,773
7.2
EBIDTA
1,620
905
79.0
1,315
23.2
%
22.3
16.6
19.4
PAT
1,219
836
45.8
1,175
3.8
Havells India Ltd - July 20, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,944
1,860
58.3
2,534
16.2
EBIDTA
381
172
121.5
348
9.5
%
13
9
14
PAT
265.8
121
119.7
225
18.1
Wipro Ltd - July 20, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
Sales
14,683
13,626
7.8
13,768
6.6
EBIDTA
2,824
2,668
5.9
2,452
15.2
%
19
20
18%
PAT
2,124
2,082
2.0
1,800
18.0
HDFC Ltd - July 21, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY19E
1QFY18
y-o-y (%)
4QFY18
q-o-q (%)
PAT
4,786
3893
22.9
4799
(0.3)
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,314
657
867
32.1
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,403
619
720
16.4
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,67,999
261
416
59.3
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,286
419
589
40.5
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,650
289
475
64.2
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,398
512
851
66.3
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,83,605
9,388
10,619
13.1
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,826
339
655
93.2
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,560
700
720
2.9
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
27,637
126
218
73.6
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,391
284
410
44.2
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,658
730
1,016
39.3
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,69,191
2,186
2,315
5.9
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise and
healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
1,13,211
911
1,050
15.3
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,896
916
1,230
34.3
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
10,650
829
948
14.4
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
26,827
1,182
1,764
49.2
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,699
183
350
91.3
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,188
813
1,020
25.5
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
33,426
571
780
36.6
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
90,199
391
435
11.3
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,399
556
670
17
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,598
270
360
33.1
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,388
1,600
2,178
36.1
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,625
2,050
2,500
22.0
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,473
202
395
95.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
30,166
151
210
38.9
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Result Calendar
Date
Company
Friday
July 20, 2018
Bajaj Auto, CEAT, Wipro
Saturday
July 21, 2018
HDFC Bank, South Ind.Bank, Reliance Power
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jul 23, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Jun
5.43
5.46
7:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(0.50)
Jul 24, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Services
Value
Jul P
54.50
54.60
5:15 PMEuro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Jul 26
-
-
Jul 25, 2018
1:00 PMGermany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul P
55.90
55.60
Jul 26, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
689.00
670.00
Jul 27, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q A
2.00
4.00
Jul 31, 2018
1:25 PMGermany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jul
(15.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
51.50
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
126.40
126.50
2:30 PMEuro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
0.40
Aug 01, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul
54.40
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
4.8
4.6
4.8
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
6.0
4.0
3.2
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
77,363
9.3
(6.6)
21.2
Russia
Micex
4,338
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,980
2.3
3.7
11.5
China
Shanghai Composite
2,787
(4.7)
(9.6)
(13.4)
South Africa
Top 40
50,169
(0.0)
(2.0)
4.7
Mexico
Mexbol
49,003
5.0
(0.2)
(4.1)
Indonesia
LQ45
927
(3.1)
(8.7)
(6.0)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,753
0.6
(6.2)
(0.4)
Thailand
SET 50
1,077
1.2
(7.3)
8.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,199
0.4
1.7
16.4
UK
FTSE
7,676
0.6
6.2
2.5
Japan
Nikkei
22,794
(0.3)
4.7
13.5
Germany
DAX
12,766
0.3
1.0
2.2
France
CAC
5,447
0.5
0.5
5.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 18 July, 2018
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
Open
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
July 20, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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